[Politics] Debunking the Debunkers: Trump's SotU Speech

Leftists are crying over President Trump.  Do they have a point?

Post State of the Union, the Democrats are rabidly attempting to debunk, undermine, and claw relevance back after Trump exposed them as little four-year olds throwing a tantrum.  As they rapidly lose relevancy as economic leaders, they are looking at ways to maintain their shrinking voter-base.

Approval of Trump post-SotU

As such, I have run into, as I'm sure many have, several videos making claims that Trump is an inhospitable liar.  However, the truth is more complicated than that, so I decide to take one of these videos and do my own research to reveal the truth.

This is the video in question I am looking at (I cannot directly link to Facebook videos so I will post the link here for personal viewing if you want): Bernie Sanders Group tries to debunk President Trump

Claim: Trump's first year of job creation is the worst since 2010

Truth: 40%

 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,  2010 has seen the job growth of about 1,060,000 jobs.  Trumps number is approximately twice that at approximately ~2,055,000 in current estimates (December and November job totals are still estimates).  2011's job total are much closer to Trumps job growth at 2,091,000 new jobs created in the year.

Still not incredibly impressive, but about average.  So the question is why?

There were three major natural disasters that significantly hindered job growth: Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria has caused significant and still unrepaired damage to large parts of Florida, Texas, and most of Puerto Rico.  The worst job growth of the year, September, at only 38,000 new jobs created, was also the most significant hurricane activity on record.

Another statistic that the video fails to look at is GDP growth during the year.  Despite the disasters in the south, the GDP of the country grew a solid 2.6% over the year.  Not the amazing 3% we were promised, but better than what has been predicted, as well as some of the fastest growth in over two years.

The reason why I give the video only 40% is because while it is technically correct, it overlooks many reasons as to way on top of missing important other statistics that indicate economic growth in the country.

This is also only looking at the past year, and not looking at current or future job growth (January had much higher than expected job growth)

Claim: Under Trump's presidency wages aren't rising, and in fact average wage has fallen accounting for inflation

Truth: 33%

After some searching on both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Social Security's National Average Wage Index, It's hard to come to any conclusive evidence to say whether this claim is definitively true of false.  Short of seeing their sources and math, I input the National Average Wage Index into the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator. The reason why I am skeptical is that Bernie's statement has been true for some time in almost any administration, regardless who has been in charge of the economy.

Pew Research indicates that the 'real average wage' of workers have barely budged in decades.  In this case, the problem is not President Trump's leadership, but an overall trend in how US finances are handled.

All of this data also has a huge problem: none of it is up to date from when Trump became president.  I don't know where they are getting their data, but unless they have hard numbers I'm missing I can't justify their claim.

That isn't the end of the story, however.  In the past few months, many businesses have been increasing their minimum wages, along with cash bonuses in many other companies.  Ont top of this, the Republican tax break is increasing the amount of take-home salary that people are getting from their jobs, meaning they keep more of their pay to spend on what they want.

The more I research this, the more I realize this debunk is pretty fallacious.

Claim: Only the rich benefit from stock market gains

Truth: 5%, complete crap

 The video doesn't even try to say President Trump is wrong because he's right.  Instead, they try and spin it saying only the rich benefit from market increases.  This is patently false in all situations.

Everyone benefits from increased stock market evaluations, as it is easier than ever to buy into the stock market.  The fantastic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street explains that, even with limited savings, smart investing can give you a dramatic increase in returns and long term benefits.

Even if you yourself don't directly invest in the stock market, chances are you have some sort of retirement fund, health fund, or college bank fund which can benefit from the bullish market.  It's not just trickle-down that will allow poorer people to benefit from bullish stock market. 

The primary complaint is that rich investors benefit more from a bullish market.  This is of course half true, as people with more accumulated wealth can invest more freely in the stock market and put more money in the stock market.  However, assume a simple hypothetical scenario:

You have $2000 to invest and you put it in an ETF
The rich guy has $2,000,000 to invest and puts in in the same ETF
The ETF goes up 10%
You make $200
The guy with more money makes $200,000
You both made 10%

It's easy to blame the rich person, but in reality you've made the same percentage (this is before factoring earnings tax, capital gains, and other associated fees that would affect the richer person more) as the richer person.

Another famous story is called 'bar stool economics'.  This story is about taxes more than about the market, but the moral is similar.

Claim: 83% of the tax cuts benefit the rich, and raises taxes on the middle class

Truth: 50%

The 'bar stool economics' story I put in the previous section is much more relevant here.  Chances are, the rich get the biggest money for it because, not big surprise, they pay the most taxes.  That being said, he is downright wrong in that the middle class will pay more taxes.

Market Watch has a great article about the 'winners and losers' of the Republicans latest bill.  The poorest group of people get minimal tax breaks.  However, this isn't because they are paying more taxes, but more because the poorest do not pay any taxes anyways.

There are also tax calculators here:
Market Watch
Tax Reform Calculator

The biggest question is if Republicans can make the tax cuts permanent.  Due to not getting enough votes to make the cuts permanent from stonewalling Democrats due to the Byrd Rule (a Democratic senator who was a former Grand Wizard of the KKK), the current break is set to expire which will result in higher taxes for the middle class.

Claim: only 2% of workers see receiving a raise from the tax bill, many companies have laid off workers

Truth: 40%

I could not find any articles showing that only 2% of workers have claimed to see a pay raise from employers due to the tax bill.  It could be because the tax bill hasn't been in effect yet, but it could also be because there is no information supporting this claim to begin with.

As for the firings, they are true but also incredibly overstated.  WalMart is firing 1000 people in their corporate  division, not their stores, while also increasing their minimum wage to $11.  AT&T has fired 600 workers in December while also increasing wages for their  other employees.  Harley Davidson has been hemorrhaging money for years, so it's no surprise they are firing workers off because the company is struggling. Tens of thousands of workers is a gross exaggeration.

That being said, there are many companies publicly announcing increasing pay bases and bonuses that have not also announced firings.  The Americans for Tax Reform has a list of companies who are giving bonuses and hiring more employees in light of tax breaks.

This also doesn't include the increased take home people will receive from reduced federal taxes (though states are trying to raise their taxes to take advantage of people's increased take home)

Claim: 100,000 American's lost their jobs due to outsourcing and unfair trade since Trump was elected

Truth: 65%, but...

Once again, I cannot find anything the proves this is accurate, but considering over the past 15 years we have lost 3.2 MILLION jobs to China I can assume it's probably true.  Outsourcing has become very popular over the years.  The video also does not say if the rate of lost jobs is more or less than the previous years, so I consider this accusation somewhat suspect.

The video also does not make any mention if this is due to Trump's policy as president or due to the current trend of the massive trade deficit we have with China already.  As we are only now seeing adjustments to the corporate tax structure as well as the beginnings of a trade war with China, I do not know if this will return jobs to America or stem the jobs leaving America.

US trade deficit with China

The big question will be if Trump's tax incentives, along with putting tariffs on China, will cause manufacturing and other jobs to start returning to the US.

Auto Manufacuring has lost 5,200 jobs in the US and 300,000 fewer cars bought in the US since Trump took office.

Truth: 75%

This one is fairly easy to verify.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics show that auto employment is up for the month, but down for the year.  While this makes Trump's claim a little dubious, overall manufacturing jobs are increasing dramatically under Trump. And many car manufacturers are planning on building, expanding, and opening new plants in the US:

Nissan
Toyota and Mazda

Car sales are down from averages, though truck sales are higher since Trump has taken office.

Claim: Trump has done nothing to stand up to the pharmaceutical industry.

Truth: 100%, but...

Just because he hasn't stood up to the industry doesn't mean he's not going to.  While we are all used to politicians who are all talk and not bite, Trump has given us clear goals he wants to pursue in the future.  He never made a campaign promise until this point to start looking into our drug industry.  We will all have to see what happens.

I personally do not expect him to tackle this problem until reelection, as he is focusing more on macro-economic moves such as trade deals like TPP and NAFTA, global politics and tensions, and seeing his initial projects he started this year through.  however, he's proven me wrong plenty of times already so I could be eating my words again.

Claim: Trump wants to sell out nations roads to rich people and wall street investors.  Only $200 billion would come from the Federal Government.

Truth: 100%, but...

I fail to see how this is a bad thing.  Here is the sheet from the white house about the proposed infrastructure project.  The interstate highways commonly used for vehicle travel between states is privately owned, and is well maintained.  The added toll sucks a bit, but it's hardly surprising.  I see this as an effective way for the rich that Bernie Sanders loves to complain about to invest in our country in a way that allows them to actively participate in maintain and expanding our roadways or other infrastructure projects.

The video also fails to say why it's a bad thing beyond "rich people are evil".  They then add hypothetical "outrageous tolls" or "sky-high fees" as fear-mongering.  It's not like there are plenty of bridges and other projects that people pay prices to travel.

Claim: One Third of Puerto Rico still doesn't have Electricity.  FEMA is transitioning out of construction and delivering emergency supplies.

Truth: 80% when this video was probably made, 0% now

The entire statement Trump said was "To everyone still recovering in Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, California, and everywhere else — we are with you, we love you, and we will pull through together."

Out of all of this, they focused on Puerto Rico because it is still pretty bad.

NPR has posted that FEMA has reversed their decision to and will continue to lend aid to Puerto Rico beyond 31st, and will continue aid as necessary.  Both Republican and Democratic senators voiced displeasure at the original plan to pull out on the 31st, and as such FEMA aid has been extended.

Clean Coal is a lie

Truth: 80% now, could fall over time

I have to admit this one made me giggle when I originally saw the SotU speech.  Clean coal is currently a quarter truth with current technology, though it is getting better over time.  As with everything, technology changes over time.  there are many projects attempting to fine ways to reduces coal's carbon emissions when burnt, so if any of these technologies make a break through it could make coal a better energy source.  People are eternally too scared of nuclear power, so coal is the cheapest option for many developing nations.

I think Trump threw that in to annoy all the environmentalists.  It also makes VA coal workers happy.  It was a shout out to his base and a poke at Democrats.

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I hope this shows how much more complicated the truth is, and how Facebook videos like the one Bernie Sanders put out are dangerous tools for misinformation.  It is good people are skeptical, but when they are egregiously biased, they need to be fact checked and analyzed.

This took way too much time.

-SomethingMusic