[Politics] The Pot Luck

One day a neighborhood community decided to that it would be nice to host a pot luck. The first one went great. Everyone brought something to eat, there was plenty of food, everyone got something they wanted (but maybe not everything they wanted) and went home happy, being united with companionship and good times. It went so well that every year this community decided it should become an annual tradition, a way to help each other up, share their bounty, and overall had great times.

As it became more popular, it needed to be a little more organized. After all, no one wants 5 people to bring hot dogs and no one to bring potato salad to a party, or a pot luck without forks! Who could imagine trying to eat macaroni salad with only knives! Because of this, the community promoted a few people who took a few weeks to make sure it was organized and managed so that the party ran smoothly every year.

However, problems soon arose. The first that happened was when some people had a peanut allergy which prevented them from eating Aunt Petuna's peanut brittle. These people were part of the community and made to feel welcome, so accommodations were made for them so they didn't have to enter anaphylactic shock.

There were other small problems that the community were able to solve easily. From location to general food organization, things went smoothly for a couple years.

That is, until the organizers thought to themselves, "Our community is great! We should be able to make it better! We can rent Farmer John's land and some tents, and have some real class to this event! Maybe we can get a bouncy castle for kids as well! We just need some money to do this!" Everyone thought this was a great idea, so they all donated $10 or so dollars to make their pot luck something really special.

But this stressed the organizers out a lot. It takes a LOT of work organize and rent space, tents, and a bouncy castle! "Why are we doing this for free?" they asked, "We should get something extra for all the work we put in!" The rest of the community grumbled, but agreed that the organizers were doing a pretty good job so they all pitched in a little extra.

Even with this the organizers were stretched a little thin. They compromised by randomly assigning people things they were supposed to bring instead of people bringing in what foods they did best. The community grumbled but the organizers said "It's better than having a pot luck without paper plates!" so the community continued doing what the organizers asked.

The pot luck grew and grew and became more and more complicated. It became the most important part to the community's year, as it wasn't just a social event to share food, but a way for people to get food that they need for the year, and a place for the community to get help from other members, be it financial trouble, housing renovations, or help with weeds in your lawn.

However, this soon ran into a major issue! The vegetarians were asked to bring in meat dishes! The vegetarians complained that making meat goes against their principals and that, until this point, they were happy complying people. They weren't preventing other people from eating or bringing meat dishes after all, they just wanted to live life the way they believed.

"Tough," answered the community organizer chosen to represent the organization, "We are too busy to cater to your needs and why can't you just be like everyone else? We're not asking you to EAT it, just make it! Do your part for the community, or else we won't let you in!" said the community representative. By this time the pot luck was very important to the community, and being removed from the pot luck was to practically be exiled from the community itself. The cost of standing up for their beliefs wasn't worth the trouble.

To prevent some of this, the organizers switched to contracts. The community has grown so more food needed to be brought in. Rather than everyone bring what they can, only SOME people who had their contracts were paid to bring in the food they were contracted to do. People were allowed to bring food, but it unnecessary now and was so much easier to pay a fee and let someone else do the work!

As the pot luck continued to grow, there were more and more problems involved in it. A group of community members who were REALLY good at barbecue chicken wanted to come together to make the ultimate barbecue chicken! However, the organizer realized everyone would want THEIR chicken rather than the chicken Humbug Joe brought. They needed to make sure ALL chicken was good, so they imposed standards on Humbug Joe's chicken so he HAD to meat minimum requirements, like the chicken needing to be cooked and be, well, chicken. However, also prevented the really good barbecue chicken guys from forming their Ultimate Barbecue Chicken group.

This made the Ultimate Barbecuer's mad. When it came time to add new members to the organizing committee, they formed a coalition to get their guy in. "He's the best at chicken!" they said, "We will make sure he will bring the best chicken at the pot luck!" People and agreed and elected him in. however, once he was in regulated the chicken to the point that ONLY the Ultimate Chicken guys could make chicken. Other people could get in, but these chicken guys were jerks. They made sure to pay extra fees that the Ultimate Chicken guys didn't have to pay. They pocketed these fees because "better to be part of the pot luck then be alone and isolated".

The Ultimate Chicken guys were just the beginning. It was soon the Potato Salad People, Aunt Petuna's peanut brittle co, and so on. They all had their people have seats in the community organization group. After all, they were already doing so much work for the pot luck, they may as well have a part in organizing it as well!

The weird thing is that after all these "highly qualified" and "the best" people were involved, the quality of pot luck food went down! Because the organizers effectively eliminated competition competition, the Ultimate Chicken guys, the Potato Salad People, etc. no longer had to work as hard since they could simply prevent other people from bringing in other products through their regulations! Not only that, but they would then award themselves the big pot luck contracts themselves!

The size of the pot luck got a lot of interest from other communities. Some began their own, but many people just wanted to join in on the big pot luck! The community said, "well, if you want to join in you have to help out and become part of the pot luck, sharing responsibilities, fees, and the regulations we all adhere to." Many people thought this was a great deal, and the pot luck grew.

However, there were a lot of people who just wanted to get in without paying the fees. "This isn't fair!" cried the growing community, "We all adhere to these rules, why shouldn't these other people?"

"Well," said the organizers, "these people can clean up the trash after the pot luck, and do some of the sanitary work like cleaning up the dishes, mowing the lawns, and so on! No one wants to do that!"

However, the organizers were playing two sides. Because the mooching members don't follow the rules the organizers themselves put into place, the organizers could then pay them less in their businesses they award themselves! Joe, Larry, Bob, and Houdini the trash men got fired. "It's okay though" thought the organizers, "They're part of the pot luck and will get help from the community, despite them no longer earning a living." Meanwhile, they were also getting profits from the mooching and community members because they had to buy the Ultimate Chicken guy's chicken, etc. etc.

While this is going on, people outside these groups and the organizing committee got kinda mad. "The pot luck is not what it used to be!" they cried! Outside of the pot luck, many people who didn't want to be super involved in it did their own thing. Many profited as their product ended up being better or outside of the Ultimate Chicken Guy's business.

Eventually, Jhonny Blonpf, of Orange Man's Tents stood up. He payed to play at the pot luck, but the pot luck wasn't his only business. "The pot luck isn't what it used to be!" He said, "It used to be a way for the community to share what they had! Now it's become a place where these organizers reward themselves for organizing! It's a huge waste of money! The jobs that used to go to Joe, Larry, Bob, and Houdini are now employed by people not of this community! We need to fix it and Make the Pot Luck Great Again!"

"Racist!" said the community organizers! "You hate people not of this community because you are racist!"

"Racist!" said the news people who got special regulations from the organizers, "You hate people not of this community because you are racist!"

"Racist!" said the Ultimate Chicken Guys in a public statement, "We will never work with Jhonny Blonpf's Tent company again!"

Many companies and groups followed suite against Jhonny Blonpf. However, this made many people think ,"Hmm, all these people have been part of the pot luck for decades. Jhonny Blonpf is an odd guy for sure, but is what he's saying true?"

[Politics] Debunking the Debunkers: Trump's SotU Speech

Leftists are crying over President Trump.  Do they have a point?

Post State of the Union, the Democrats are rabidly attempting to debunk, undermine, and claw relevance back after Trump exposed them as little four-year olds throwing a tantrum.  As they rapidly lose relevancy as economic leaders, they are looking at ways to maintain their shrinking voter-base.

Approval of Trump post-SotU

As such, I have run into, as I'm sure many have, several videos making claims that Trump is an inhospitable liar.  However, the truth is more complicated than that, so I decide to take one of these videos and do my own research to reveal the truth.

This is the video in question I am looking at (I cannot directly link to Facebook videos so I will post the link here for personal viewing if you want): Bernie Sanders Group tries to debunk President Trump

Claim: Trump's first year of job creation is the worst since 2010

Truth: 40%

 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,  2010 has seen the job growth of about 1,060,000 jobs.  Trumps number is approximately twice that at approximately ~2,055,000 in current estimates (December and November job totals are still estimates).  2011's job total are much closer to Trumps job growth at 2,091,000 new jobs created in the year.

Still not incredibly impressive, but about average.  So the question is why?

There were three major natural disasters that significantly hindered job growth: Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria has caused significant and still unrepaired damage to large parts of Florida, Texas, and most of Puerto Rico.  The worst job growth of the year, September, at only 38,000 new jobs created, was also the most significant hurricane activity on record.

Another statistic that the video fails to look at is GDP growth during the year.  Despite the disasters in the south, the GDP of the country grew a solid 2.6% over the year.  Not the amazing 3% we were promised, but better than what has been predicted, as well as some of the fastest growth in over two years.

The reason why I give the video only 40% is because while it is technically correct, it overlooks many reasons as to way on top of missing important other statistics that indicate economic growth in the country.

This is also only looking at the past year, and not looking at current or future job growth (January had much higher than expected job growth)

Claim: Under Trump's presidency wages aren't rising, and in fact average wage has fallen accounting for inflation

Truth: 33%

After some searching on both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Social Security's National Average Wage Index, It's hard to come to any conclusive evidence to say whether this claim is definitively true of false.  Short of seeing their sources and math, I input the National Average Wage Index into the Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator. The reason why I am skeptical is that Bernie's statement has been true for some time in almost any administration, regardless who has been in charge of the economy.

Pew Research indicates that the 'real average wage' of workers have barely budged in decades.  In this case, the problem is not President Trump's leadership, but an overall trend in how US finances are handled.

All of this data also has a huge problem: none of it is up to date from when Trump became president.  I don't know where they are getting their data, but unless they have hard numbers I'm missing I can't justify their claim.

That isn't the end of the story, however.  In the past few months, many businesses have been increasing their minimum wages, along with cash bonuses in many other companies.  Ont top of this, the Republican tax break is increasing the amount of take-home salary that people are getting from their jobs, meaning they keep more of their pay to spend on what they want.

The more I research this, the more I realize this debunk is pretty fallacious.

Claim: Only the rich benefit from stock market gains

Truth: 5%, complete crap

 The video doesn't even try to say President Trump is wrong because he's right.  Instead, they try and spin it saying only the rich benefit from market increases.  This is patently false in all situations.

Everyone benefits from increased stock market evaluations, as it is easier than ever to buy into the stock market.  The fantastic book A Random Walk Down Wall Street explains that, even with limited savings, smart investing can give you a dramatic increase in returns and long term benefits.

Even if you yourself don't directly invest in the stock market, chances are you have some sort of retirement fund, health fund, or college bank fund which can benefit from the bullish market.  It's not just trickle-down that will allow poorer people to benefit from bullish stock market. 

The primary complaint is that rich investors benefit more from a bullish market.  This is of course half true, as people with more accumulated wealth can invest more freely in the stock market and put more money in the stock market.  However, assume a simple hypothetical scenario:

You have $2000 to invest and you put it in an ETF
The rich guy has $2,000,000 to invest and puts in in the same ETF
The ETF goes up 10%
You make $200
The guy with more money makes $200,000
You both made 10%

It's easy to blame the rich person, but in reality you've made the same percentage (this is before factoring earnings tax, capital gains, and other associated fees that would affect the richer person more) as the richer person.

Another famous story is called 'bar stool economics'.  This story is about taxes more than about the market, but the moral is similar.

Claim: 83% of the tax cuts benefit the rich, and raises taxes on the middle class

Truth: 50%

The 'bar stool economics' story I put in the previous section is much more relevant here.  Chances are, the rich get the biggest money for it because, not big surprise, they pay the most taxes.  That being said, he is downright wrong in that the middle class will pay more taxes.

Market Watch has a great article about the 'winners and losers' of the Republicans latest bill.  The poorest group of people get minimal tax breaks.  However, this isn't because they are paying more taxes, but more because the poorest do not pay any taxes anyways.

There are also tax calculators here:
Market Watch
Tax Reform Calculator

The biggest question is if Republicans can make the tax cuts permanent.  Due to not getting enough votes to make the cuts permanent from stonewalling Democrats due to the Byrd Rule (a Democratic senator who was a former Grand Wizard of the KKK), the current break is set to expire which will result in higher taxes for the middle class.

Claim: only 2% of workers see receiving a raise from the tax bill, many companies have laid off workers

Truth: 40%

I could not find any articles showing that only 2% of workers have claimed to see a pay raise from employers due to the tax bill.  It could be because the tax bill hasn't been in effect yet, but it could also be because there is no information supporting this claim to begin with.

As for the firings, they are true but also incredibly overstated.  WalMart is firing 1000 people in their corporate  division, not their stores, while also increasing their minimum wage to $11.  AT&T has fired 600 workers in December while also increasing wages for their  other employees.  Harley Davidson has been hemorrhaging money for years, so it's no surprise they are firing workers off because the company is struggling. Tens of thousands of workers is a gross exaggeration.

That being said, there are many companies publicly announcing increasing pay bases and bonuses that have not also announced firings.  The Americans for Tax Reform has a list of companies who are giving bonuses and hiring more employees in light of tax breaks.

This also doesn't include the increased take home people will receive from reduced federal taxes (though states are trying to raise their taxes to take advantage of people's increased take home)

Claim: 100,000 American's lost their jobs due to outsourcing and unfair trade since Trump was elected

Truth: 65%, but...

Once again, I cannot find anything the proves this is accurate, but considering over the past 15 years we have lost 3.2 MILLION jobs to China I can assume it's probably true.  Outsourcing has become very popular over the years.  The video also does not say if the rate of lost jobs is more or less than the previous years, so I consider this accusation somewhat suspect.

The video also does not make any mention if this is due to Trump's policy as president or due to the current trend of the massive trade deficit we have with China already.  As we are only now seeing adjustments to the corporate tax structure as well as the beginnings of a trade war with China, I do not know if this will return jobs to America or stem the jobs leaving America.

US trade deficit with China

The big question will be if Trump's tax incentives, along with putting tariffs on China, will cause manufacturing and other jobs to start returning to the US.

Auto Manufacuring has lost 5,200 jobs in the US and 300,000 fewer cars bought in the US since Trump took office.

Truth: 75%

This one is fairly easy to verify.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics show that auto employment is up for the month, but down for the year.  While this makes Trump's claim a little dubious, overall manufacturing jobs are increasing dramatically under Trump. And many car manufacturers are planning on building, expanding, and opening new plants in the US:

Nissan
Toyota and Mazda

Car sales are down from averages, though truck sales are higher since Trump has taken office.

Claim: Trump has done nothing to stand up to the pharmaceutical industry.

Truth: 100%, but...

Just because he hasn't stood up to the industry doesn't mean he's not going to.  While we are all used to politicians who are all talk and not bite, Trump has given us clear goals he wants to pursue in the future.  He never made a campaign promise until this point to start looking into our drug industry.  We will all have to see what happens.

I personally do not expect him to tackle this problem until reelection, as he is focusing more on macro-economic moves such as trade deals like TPP and NAFTA, global politics and tensions, and seeing his initial projects he started this year through.  however, he's proven me wrong plenty of times already so I could be eating my words again.

Claim: Trump wants to sell out nations roads to rich people and wall street investors.  Only $200 billion would come from the Federal Government.

Truth: 100%, but...

I fail to see how this is a bad thing.  Here is the sheet from the white house about the proposed infrastructure project.  The interstate highways commonly used for vehicle travel between states is privately owned, and is well maintained.  The added toll sucks a bit, but it's hardly surprising.  I see this as an effective way for the rich that Bernie Sanders loves to complain about to invest in our country in a way that allows them to actively participate in maintain and expanding our roadways or other infrastructure projects.

The video also fails to say why it's a bad thing beyond "rich people are evil".  They then add hypothetical "outrageous tolls" or "sky-high fees" as fear-mongering.  It's not like there are plenty of bridges and other projects that people pay prices to travel.

Claim: One Third of Puerto Rico still doesn't have Electricity.  FEMA is transitioning out of construction and delivering emergency supplies.

Truth: 80% when this video was probably made, 0% now

The entire statement Trump said was "To everyone still recovering in Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, California, and everywhere else — we are with you, we love you, and we will pull through together."

Out of all of this, they focused on Puerto Rico because it is still pretty bad.

NPR has posted that FEMA has reversed their decision to and will continue to lend aid to Puerto Rico beyond 31st, and will continue aid as necessary.  Both Republican and Democratic senators voiced displeasure at the original plan to pull out on the 31st, and as such FEMA aid has been extended.

Clean Coal is a lie

Truth: 80% now, could fall over time

I have to admit this one made me giggle when I originally saw the SotU speech.  Clean coal is currently a quarter truth with current technology, though it is getting better over time.  As with everything, technology changes over time.  there are many projects attempting to fine ways to reduces coal's carbon emissions when burnt, so if any of these technologies make a break through it could make coal a better energy source.  People are eternally too scared of nuclear power, so coal is the cheapest option for many developing nations.

I think Trump threw that in to annoy all the environmentalists.  It also makes VA coal workers happy.  It was a shout out to his base and a poke at Democrats.

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I hope this shows how much more complicated the truth is, and how Facebook videos like the one Bernie Sanders put out are dangerous tools for misinformation.  It is good people are skeptical, but when they are egregiously biased, they need to be fact checked and analyzed.

This took way too much time.

-SomethingMusic